Determination of burn‐in parameters and residual life for highly reliable products

Today, many products are designed and manufactured to function for a long period of time before they fail. Determining product reliability is a great challenge to manufacturers of highly reliable products with only a relatively short period of time available for internal life testing. In particular, it may be difficult to determine optimal burn‐in parameters and characterize the residual life distribution. A promising alternative is to use data on a quality characteristic (QC) whose degradation over time can be related to product failure. Typically, product failure corresponds to the first passage time of the degradation path beyond a critical value. If degradation paths can be modeled properly, one can predict failure time and determine the life distribution without actually observing failures. In this paper, we first use a Wiener process to describe the continuous degradation path of the quality characteristic of the product. A Wiener process allows nonconstant variance and nonzero correlation among data collected at different time points. We propose a decision rule for classifying a unit as normal or weak, and give an economic model for determining the optimal termination time and other parameters of a burn‐in test. Next, we propose a method for assessing the product's lifetime distribution of the passed units. The proposed methodologies are all based only on the product's initial observed degradation data. Finally, an example of an electronic product, namely contact image scanner (CIS), is used to illustrate the proposed procedure. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

顶置武器站性能评估方法

在评估指标体系和虚拟样机仿真测试评估数据的基础上,对顶置武器站性能评估进行研究。对评估方法进行研究,提出了适合顶置武器站性能评估特点的灰色模糊综合评估法,选用灰色关联度分析计算指标权重,建立开放性的隶属矩阵,最终建立顶置武器站性能评估模型。通过实例评估表明该评估模型准确可靠。     

乌昌地区极化效应影响分析

乌昌经济一体化是新疆维吾尔自治区党委基于现实情况做出的区域经济发展的战略，该战略以其前所未有的发展促进了民族地区经济的发展。该文在极化理论的指导下分析了乌昌地区的扩散作用和回流作用，并对这些作用进行总结性分析。     

二维超声速空气引射器启动特性试验研究

超声速引射器是高空模拟试车台的重要组件,在发动机启动前利用引射器对试验舱预抽真空,可避免发动机启动初始时刻燃气漏入试验舱造成燃气在发动机中分离,对获取发动机在高空环境下的完整推力特性具有重要意义。而该工况下超声速引射器的启动过程是引射器工作过程中最为恶劣的工况,设计不合理的引射器会导致启动压力过高甚至不能实现启动。建立了缩比超声速空气引射器试验台对超声速引射器的启动特性进行研究,采用压力测量方法结合纹影技术对超声速引射器处于极限启动压比时的流场进行了描述,研究结果表明混合室收缩比越小,引射器极限启动压比越低。同时给出了定位超声速引射器不启动原因的判据:当引射器不启动是由引射总压不足引起时,盲腔压力在引射总压提高时降低,并在临界启动状态下达到最小值;而由混合室收缩比过小导致的引射器不启动在引射总压提高时盲腔压力单调上升。     

Effect of wave shaper on reactive materials jet formation and its penetration performance

Wave shaper effect on formation behavior and penetration performance of reactive liner shaped charge (RLSC) are investigated by experiments and simulations. The reactive materials liner with a density of 2.3 g/cm³ is fabricated by cold pressing at a pressure of 300 MPa and sintering at a temperature of 380 °C. Experiments of the RLSC with and without wave shaper against steel plates are carried out at standoffs of 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 CD (charge diameter), respectively. The experimental results show that the penetration depths and structural damage effects of steel plates decrease with increasing the standoff, while the penetration depths and the damage effects of RLSC without wave shaper are much greater than that with wave shaper at the same standoff. To understand the unusual experimental results, numerical simulations based on AUTODYN-2D code are conducted to discuss the wave shaper effect, including the propagation behavior of detonation wave, the velocity and temperature distribution of reactive jet, and penetration depth of reactive jet. The simulations indicate that, compared with RLSC without wave shaper, there is a higher temperature produced inside reactive jet with wave shaper. This unusual temperature rise effects are likely to be an important mechanism to cause the initiation delay time of reactive jet to decline, which results in significantly decreasing its penetration performance.     

藏区地基换填戈壁土处理的经济适用性评价

藏区地基处理中如果能采用戈壁土作为换填材料，可以较好的解决该地区地基加固费用高的问题。结合某新建工程，对换填戈壁土方法进行经济适用性评价，结果表明该方法经济合理，可以推广应用。     

机翼不对称损伤飞机在大侧滑角下的操稳特性研究

对某小型电动无人机(以下简称SEPUAV)在其左翼破损40%面积矩下的操稳特性进行详细分析。首先在此损伤下典型大侧滑角定常工作点附近进行特殊的小扰动线性化,然后进行特征根和飞行运动模态的分析;其次对此特殊构型SEPUAV进行操稳特性、时频响应特性进行分析。分析结果表明:左翼破损40%面积矩SEPUAV出现特有运动模态并影响全部纵侧向运动状态的响应;部分传递函数出现较多非最小相位零点从而导致初始响应发生反向;部分通道的Bode图中出现多个波峰波谷并有相角提前等现象。分析结果对后续容损飞行控制器的设计起到铺垫的作用。     

多空气层防火帘防火性能比例试验

为优化舰船多空气层防火帘帘面的选材设计,对不同反辐射帘面材料设计方案进行了比例火灾试验,并对卷帘基本结构以及反辐射层的防火隔热性能进行了研究。在此基础上,提出了一种最优设计的多空气层防火帘施工方案,为工程设计提供了参考,并为后续开展标准化试验提供了理论依据。     

论消防基层部队依法执勤理论创新与实践

依法执勤是指公安消防部队依照消防法律、法规等规定所实施的行政行为和公安消防勤务活动。以对湖南消防总队基层部队的依法执勤理论创新与实践进行的专题调研为基础,介绍了他们在此问题上的探索与实践及取得的成绩,分析探讨了开展依法执勤工作面临的问题,并提出开展依法执勤工作的建议。